India Exim Bank Forecasts Positive Growth in Q4 Merchandise Exports

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 118.2 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 2.96%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 95 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 4.55%, during Q4 (January-March) of FY2024.  These positive growth rates are expected to be witnessed against the backdrop of negative growth seen during the first two quarters of the year. Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s strong GDP growth fundamentals and outlook and expected global easing of monetary tightening spurring global demand. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the middle east crisis leading to the intensification of the Red Sea crisis and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors.

With these forecasts, India’s total merchandise exports for the full year for FY2024 are expected to be at US$ 435.3 billion, while non-oil exports figures are likely to be maintained at the previous year’s level.  However, oil exports are expected to remain subdued during the year, contracting by US$ 12.5 billion, compared to the FY2023. 

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 1st quarter of FY 2025 (i.e. April-June 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of May 2024.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Head,  Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.