Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 111.2 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 6.3%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 88.1 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 7.7%, during Q3 (October-December) of FY2024. These positive growth rates are expected to be witnessed against the backdrop of negative growth seen during the first two quarters of the year. Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of improvement in India’s GDP growth outlook and expected global easing of monetary tightening spurring global demand. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors.
India’s total merchandise exports have consistently remained above US$ 100 bn for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 FY2022, reflecting resilience amidst a challenging global economic situation, plagued by supply chain disruptions and geo-political tensions. With these forecasts, India’s total merchandise exports for the first nine months of FY2024 are expected to amount to US$ 323 bn, while non-oil exports could amount to US$ 258 bn during the same period. Positive growth in exports is expected to continue in the last quarter of the financial year.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 4th quarter of FY 2024 (i.e. January-March 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of February 2024.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.