Indian Stock Markets are Under Pressure by Global Trends: Morgan Stanley

SMEStreet Edit Desk July 17, 2018Last Updated: July 17, 2018

3 1 minute read

morgan stanley, RBI, Reserve Bank of India, MPC

The Sensex may have hit all-time high last week, but the broader markets have hardly contributed to the rally. Amid ongoing market conditions, global brokerage Morgan Stanley believes Indian stock market is facing pressure from negative trend in emerging markets, rising interest rates, and higher oil prices at a time when electoral uncertainty looms large with general elections 2019 not so far. However, it noted that the large-cap index has support from an improving growth cycle, strong macro stability and local appetite for equities.

According to the global brokerage, following are the factors that may work in favour or against Indian equity market:

Strong macro stability evident in a positive BoP and backed by a Central Bank that is committed to keeping real rates positive.

A bullish steepening of yield curve, which is at post-2010 highs – the yield curve correlates positively with stocks.

A low and falling beta, which augurs well in a weak global equity market environment as we have seen over the past few weeks.

India’s growth is likely accelerating relative to EM. Our work shows that corporate confidence is at a multiyear high and profits are likely to mean revert from below trend.

Strong domestic flows, currently averaging around US$2-2.5 billion a month, which we believe are in a structural uptrend.

Weaker FPI positioning, now at 2011 levels.

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SMEStreet Edit Desk July 17, 2018Last Updated: July 17, 2018

3 1 minute read

Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work. They are tuned up to work in a specific market condition. They often make money in a trending market, but loose money in a choppy market. It is not a problem as long as the market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a system can be profitable for several months and you would be happy with it. BUT…

PREPARE FOR THE WORST…

Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex system recognizes the trend.

PROBLEM: FALSE “STRONG TREND” INDICATION.

The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and make a profit. It looks like a “strong trend”, but what usually happens next is a hard fall.

To avoid falling into this trap, check for the SOLUTION to find a REAL trend:

http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834

SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY

Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job. The problem comes with the question: “Is the market trending NOW?” Whether the market is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct question is: “How well the market is trending?”

And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.

Trends exist and they can be traded up and down for a profit. You have to focus only on the most reliable market trends. “Forex Trendy” is a software solution to find the BEST trending currency pairs, time frames and compute the trend reliability for each Forex chart:

http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834

3 Comments

h7gj says:
July 17, 2018 at 11:59 am
Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work. They are tuned up to work in a specific market condition. They often make money in a trending market, but loose money in a choppy market. It is not a problem as long as the market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a system can be profitable for several months and you would be happy with it. BUT…
PREPARE FOR THE WORST…
Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex system recognizes the trend.
PROBLEM: FALSE “STRONG TREND” INDICATION.
The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and make a profit. It looks like a “strong trend”, but what usually happens next is a hard fall.
To avoid falling into this trap, check for the SOLUTION to find a REAL trend:
http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834
SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY
Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job. The problem comes with the question: “Is the market trending NOW?” Whether the market is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct question is: “How well the market is trending?”
And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.
Trends exist and they can be traded up and down for a profit. You have to focus only on the most reliable market trends. “Forex Trendy” is a software solution to find the BEST trending currency pairs, time frames and compute the trend reliability for each Forex chart:
http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834
Dabloo says:
June 6, 2021 at 10:35 pm
I think stocks are no longer under pressure. You can check it out here https://forex-markets.org
rony odupa says:
September 14, 2021 at 4:53 pm
That is so true but the noticeable change or volatility is of great concern https://absoluteadvisers.com/