The Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorological Department in its latest release has stated as below:
Yesterday’s depression over southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified into a deep depression in the same afternoon (1430 hrs IST of 16th May), into cyclonic storm ‘AMPHAN’ (pronounced as UM-PUN)’in the same evening (1730 hrs IST of 16th May) over the central parts of south BoB. It further intensified into a severe cyclonic storm at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 17th May, 2020 and lay centred over the same region near latitude 11.4°N and longitude 86.0°E, about 990 km south of Paradip (Odisha), 1140 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 1260 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
It is very likely to intensify further into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours.It is very likely to move nearly northwards slowly during next 24 hours and then re-curve north-northeastwardsand move fast across northwest BoB and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) during afternoon / evening of 20th May 2020 as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:
|Date/Time(IST)||Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)||Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)||Category of cyclonic disturbance|
|17.05.20/0830||11.4/86.0||90-100 gusting to 110||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|17.05.20/1130||11.7/85.9||95-105 gusting to 115||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|17.05.20/1730||12.3/85.8||105-115 gusting to 125||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|17.05.20/2330||13.1/85.9||115-125 gusting to 140||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|18.05.20/0530||13.7/86.0||125-135 gusting to 150||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|18.05.20/1730||14.8/86.2||145-155 gusting to 170||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|19.05.20/0530||16.1/86.6||160-170 gusting to 190||Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|19.05.20/1730||17.6/87.2||170-180 gusting to 200||Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|20.05.20/0530||19.6/88.0||170-180 gusting to 200||Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|20.05.20/1730||21.7/89.0||155-165 gusting to 180||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|21.05.20/0530||23.5/89.7||95-105 gusting to 115||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|21.05.20/1730||25.3/90.2||40-50 gusting to 60||Depression|
(i) Rainfall (over Andaman & Nicobar Islands): Light to moderate rainfall at most places is very likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.
- Rainfall (over Odisha & Gangetic West Bengal)
Coastal Odisha is likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places from 18th May evening. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places on 19thMay and isolated heavy rainfall over north coastal Odisha on 20th May 2020. Coastal districts of Gangetic West Bengal are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places on 19th May. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places & extremely heavy falls at isolated places likely over coastal districts of West Bengal on 20th May.
(ii) Wind warning: Squally wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to commence along and off south Odisha coast from 18th evening, extend to along & off north Odisha coast from 19th morning and along and off West Bengal coast from 19th afternoon. The wind speed will gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 75 to 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from 20th morning along and off north Odisha and West Bengal coasts. It will gradually increase thereafter along & off West Bengal coast becoming 100-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph from 20th May afternoon.
- Squally wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely over Andaman Sea during next 24 hours.
- Squally wind speed reaching 80 to 90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph is prevailing over southeast and adjoining southwest BoB. It is likely to increase becoming 125-135 gusting to 150 kmph over southern parts of central BoB by 18th morning, 160-170 gusting to 190kmph over northern parts of central & adjoining North BoB on 19th and 155-165 gusting to 180 kmph over north BoB during 20th May.
(iii) Sea condition: Sea condition will very high over southwest and adjoining central BoB during next 24 hours It will become phenomenal over southern parts of central BoB from tonight, overnorthern parts of central & adjoining north BoB on 19th May and over north BoB on 20th May 2020.
(iv) Fishermen Warning: The fishermen are advised not to venture into south Bay of Bengalduring next 24 hours, to central Bay of Bengalduring 17th to 18thMay and North Bay of Bengal during 18th to 20th May 2020.
· Also, fishermen are advised not to venture into north Bay of Bengal along and off North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts during 18th to 20th May 2020.
The system is under continuous surveillance and the concerned state governments are being informed regularly.