Dun & Bradstreet expects the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to have grown by 7.0% -7.5% during November 2021. 15-91-day Treasury Bills yield to average at around 3.55% -3.65% and 10-year G-Sec yield at around 6.4%-6.5% during December 2021.
Dr. Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet commented by adding, “As uncertainty over Omicron looms large, fading away of optimism levels or demand downturn could weigh upon growth. Besides, the risk from faster policy normalisation by major central banks leading to tightening of financial conditions and stifling of growth impulses has increased. India will not remain decoupled if global growth weakens. So far, India has managed to recover strongly. Nonetheless, rising of inflationary pressures might dampen the confidence levels for spending and restrain the pace of revival in demand which is yet to recover to the pre-pandemic level. Dun & Bradstreet proprietary data shows that increase in energy prices has already started impacting the credit performance of energy intensive sectors with increased risk of business closures, especially in the unorganised sector. Given that inflation can be a drag on demand, investment should pick up largely driven by the government. In this context, the slew of infrastructure projects undertaken by the government, notably the Gati Shakti project, inland waterways, textile parks amongst others bodes well for India’s growth.”