The Ministry of Earth Science recently said that the Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal.
Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm, it added.
Weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.
The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have a strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored.
Overall, the country is expected to have well-distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing Kharif season.
IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 Forecast during the first week of June, 2019.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages.
The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. These forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) and using the dynamical coupled Ocean-Atmosphere global
Climate Forecasting System (CFS) model developed under Monsoon Mission of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.