India seems to be the worst affected economy among emerging markets from the Covid-19 pandemic with Investors’ Macro Ratings Index (IMRI) deteriorating the most in the country in the first half of the calendar year 2020, a Motilal Oswal analysis of macroeconomic conditions in India via emerging markets has shown.
IMRI gauges investors perception of the strength of an economy based on parameters such as inflation, fiscal deficit, current account deficit and change in real GDP growth.
While IMRI has worsened for all emerging markets during the H1, least deterioration is seen in case of Taiwan and the most in India.
The Covid-19 has had severe impact on Indian economy with GSD contraction by 23.9 per cent in April-June quarter and increased pandemic relief expenditure at a time when revenue streams have shrunk had positioned country’s fiscal deficit to touch a high of 8 per cent in FY21.
Even an International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis has projected India’s real GDP growth to be the worst in CY 2020 Maao ganj all EMs with a contraction of about 10.3 per cent.
As per the brokerage analysis, all is bad for the EMs, particularly India, as after an abysmal H1, the global economy has seen a turnaround in 3QCY20 with improvement being visible almost everywhere.
While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has expanded its balance sheet the most v/s counterparts in other EMs, broad money supply growth does not show any extraordinary increase, the brokerage report said.
Still, inflation is, by far, the highest in India, while the economy has seen most improvement on external indicators. In the past quarter, while India’s equity markets did well, the bond and currency markets were surprisingly stable, it added.
