India might lose $438 billion worth of output over next 2 years due to economic disturbance caused by Covid-19 outbreak, a SBI Ecowrap report said.
The report’s estimates are based on the International Monetary Fund’s projections of a deeper recession in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021.
“Global output is projected to decline by 4.9 per cent in 2020 followed by a partial recovery, with growth at 5.4 per cent in 2021,” the report said.
“Owing to that, a cumulative output loss to the global economy over two years (2020-21) from this crisis will be around $12.5 trillion.”
As per the report, given that India’s share of 3.5 per cent in the global economy, the country’s output loss over next two years will be around $438 billion or Rs 31.5 lakh crore.
In the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast report, the IMF on Wednesday said that India’s economy is expected to contract on the back of a longer lockdown and a slower recovery than anticipated in April.
Accordingly, the country’s economy will contract in FY21 from an expansion of 4.2 per cent in FY20.
In terms of calendar year 2020, the economy is expected to contract by (-)4.9 per cent.
Nevertheless, for fiscal 2021-22, INF projected a growth of 6 per cent for the country.