KP Green Energy Sees 60% Revenue Growth Outlook Till FY30

1. Renewable power generating company in Gujarat

Business Segments

2. FY20-24: Revenue CAGR of 124% & PAT CAGR of 104%

3. Strong FY24: PAT up 48% & Revenue up 59% YoY

4. Strong Q3-25: PAT up 68% & Revenue up 39% YoY

PAT up 22% & Revenue up 27% QoQ

5. Strong 9M-25: PAT up 86% & Revenue up 60% YoY

6. Business metrics: Strong return ratios

7. Outlook: Revenue CAGR of up to 60%

i. FY24-30: Revenue CAGR of up to 60%

KPI Green Energy Ltd. aims to clock an annual revenue growth of up to 60% till FY 2030 on the back of a strong order book, according to Faruk Patel, chairman and managing director (CMD), KP Group.

ii. Strong revenue visibility - Order book ~2X FY25 expected revenue

Assuming a FY25 revenue of close to Rs 1,600 cr given the Rs 1,177 cr run rate in 9M-25. An order book of Rs 3,200 cr is 2X of FY25 expected revenue.

The consolidated CPP/EPC order book continues to grow at a rapid pace and stood at ~Rs. 3,279 crore as of December 2024 compared to Rs. 2,228 crore as of August 2024 (~Rs. 1,050 crore as of March 2024) . The order book includes a ~Rs. 1,300 crore from Coal India Limited, a ~Rs. 530.0-crore order from Maharashtra State Power Generation Co. Ltd. (MAHAGENCO) and a ~Rs. 450-crore order from a reputed corporate customer, which will be executed over the next 12-18 months. The remaining orders are from the usual commercial and industrial (C&I) customers, which will be executed over the next 6-8 months.

iii. Margins are sustainable

The operating profit margin is expected to remain healthy at a level similar to FY2024 in the current fiscal as well.

8. PAT growth of 86% & revenue growth of 60% in 9M-25 at a PE of 33

9. Hold?

If I hold the stock then one may continue holding on to KPIGREEN

• The strong business momentum from FY24 continues into the first nine months of FY25, with growth in-line with the 60% outlook given by the management.

• Strong order book is providing confidence of a strong FY25 and providing revenue visibility in to FY26. One can keep riding the business momentum as long as it lasts.

• 60% growth target till FY30 seems ambitious. It should be viewed with caution.

  • However, the 60% growth outlook for FY26 appears reasonable based on the current order book.

  • It's best to reassess the growth outlook annually.

• The price stock price is seriously down from its 52 wk high which is creating a lot of doubts. However, the business momentum and execution in FY25 continues uninterrupted.

10. Buy?

If I am looking to enter KPIGREEN then

• KPIGREEN has delivered PAT growth of 86% & Revenue growth of 60% in 9M-25 at a PE of 33 which makes valuations fairly priced in the short term.

• The revenue CAGR outlook of up to 60% until FY30 presents an opportunity in KPIGREEN at a PE of 33. However, it’s important to assess this outlook based on year-to-year performance.

• Strong revenue visibility for FY26 is supported by the current order book, which is nearly twice the expected revenue for FY25. This order book boosts confidence in KPIGREEN's management outlook of delivering 60% growth, making the PE of 33 reasonable from a FY26 perspective.

• With a 60% growth target, the margin of safety is low. A weak quarter could lead to disappointment, raising doubts about the target and negatively impacting the stock price. Strong execution is crucial to sustain the growth story till FY30.