Today’s RBI’s monetary policy meeting concluded with an unanimous decision of keeping the repo rate unchanged. Industry representatives have come forward and shared their opinion and reactions on this development.
Ms. Achala Jethmalani, Economist, RBL Bank commented, “In a no surprise move, monetary policy maintained a status-quo on policy rates and stance. It remains in a ‘wait & watch’ mode and vigilant on inflation trajectory. We expect a pause on policy rates through CY2023 while modulating system liquidity. The window for policy pivot to rate cuts could open-up in 1H CY2024, if inflation trajectory warrants given that growth remains robust.”
Mr Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda shared his viewpoint on today’s RBI Monetary Policy announcement by saing, “The credit policy was more or less on expected lines. The RBI has indicated two things. The first is that while GDP growth will be 6.5% for the year, there will be a tendency for the growth rate to keep declining progressively across the quarters. The other is that inflation will be 5.1%, though will be lower at 4.6% in Q1. Subsequently it will be increasing progressively in the next two quarters to 5.4% in Q3. This indicates that it looks unlikely that there will be a rate cut until Q4. The RBI has also been clear that the decision taken today is for this quarter only and future action will be data driven. Hence this should not be taken as being close to change in stance. We expect bond yields to be stable especially at the longer end.”
On the aspect of inflation, Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist & Head Research, Bandhan Bank expressed his views by adding, “The status quo on the repo rate in today’s MPC meeting was almost a foregone conclusion and the committee did not spring any surprise. Interestingly, despite lowering the Q1 FY24 CPI inflation forecast by 50 basis points, the CPI projection for the full year was kept almost unchanged. As expected, the RBI underscored that the vigil on inflation will remain strong as they emphasised on the importance of reaching the CPI target of 4% rather than merely staying within the tolerance band. The emphasis on achieving the 4% target and keeping the stance of policy unchanged at “withdrawal of accommodation” likely have pushed out expectations of rate cuts at the margin. Overall, the central bank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged for several quarters, likely beyond the current calendar year. Monetary policy in India of late had been prudent, decisive and often front-loaded, a trend that is likely to continue in the foreseeable future”