India’s exports languishing for quite some time can take advantage of the favourable trade growth outlook of 2021 and consolidate position further than what has been witnessed in 1Q FY22, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has said.
The United States which is part of North America and the United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands which are part of Europe are expected to clock import growth of 11.4 per cent and 8.4 per cent YoY respectively in 2021.
Ind-Ra thus expects merchandise exports from India to grow 6.9 per cent in FY22 (FY21: negative 12.5 per cent and FY20: negative 5 per cent).
In year-on-year growth terms, India’s exports grew 60 per cent, 196 per cent, 69 per cent and 48 per cent in March, April, May and June respectively.
No doubt, the growth numbers reflect the depth of Covid-19 shock last year. However, Ind-Ra said they also show the strength of the current recovery. The average monthly exports during 1Q FY22 jumped to USD 31.8 billion.
In fact, the exports momentum began in March which witnessed the highest ever monthly exports of USD 34.45 billion.
However, as the threat of Covid-19 is not yet over, a lot will depend on the pace and coverage of immunisation in different parts of the globe, said Ind-Ra.