Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 98.45 bn, growing at 33%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 85.63 bn, growing at 28.3%, during the second quarter of FY 2021-22, as compared to US$ 74.02 bn and US$ 66.73 bn, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. The rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the low base effect, pick-up in growth in advanced economies and the resultant increase in global import demand. Increase in commodity prices have also contributed to the increase in India’s exports.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 3rd quarter i.e. October-December 2021 would be released during the first week of December 2021.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.