Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to remain above US$ 100 bn (US$ 100.5 bn) during the third quarter (October-December) of FY2023, notwithstanding some y-o-y contraction (5.9% over the corresponding quarter of the previous year). Non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 80.5 bn during the said period, (contracting by 9.7% over the previous year). India’s exports could be shadowed by deepening global energy crisis, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, continued slowdown in select major trade partners and continued uncertainty around the Russia Ukraine conflict. While a negative growth is likely to be witnessed during the first two months of the quarter, however due to recent domestic policy changes and envisaged improvement in the external environment, there could be a recovery in India’s exports in the coming months.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 4th quarter of FY 2023 (i.e. January-March 2023) would be released during the first week of March 2023.
The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.