US Elections 2024: Implications for India-U.S. Relations as Strategic Allies Brace for Change

As the U.S. heads toward the 2024 presidential election, the world watches closely, with India keenly observing how the outcome may shape bilateral ties. With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as leading contenders, the election holds potential ramifications for trade, defense cooperation, immigration policies, and the broader geopolitical landscape. Both nations, now strategic partners, will need to adapt to new priorities and policies, ensuring that their robust relationship continues to thrive in an increasingly complex global environment.

The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, featuring candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, is poised to influence U.S.-India relations across several domains:

Defense and Security Cooperation

Both candidates recognize India’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly concerning China’s assertiveness. Under Trump’s previous administration, defense ties strengthened through agreements like the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). A second Trump term might focus on maintaining high-level defense deals and expanding joint military exercises. Conversely, Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s emphasis on strategic partnerships, potentially deepening defense collaboration and technology sharing. 

Trade Relations

Trade policies could diverge significantly between the two candidates. Trump’s “America First” approach previously led to trade disputes and tariffs affecting major partners, including India. A renewed Trump presidency might continue to pressure India on trade deficits and market access. In contrast, Harris may adopt a more multilateral trade strategy, potentially easing tensions and fostering economic cooperation. 

Immigration and Workforce

Immigration policies, particularly regarding H-1B visas, are crucial for India’s IT sector. Trump’s earlier term saw increased scrutiny and restrictions on these visas, impacting Indian professionals. A second term could maintain or intensify these measures. Harris, however, is anticipated to support more inclusive immigration policies, benefiting skilled Indian workers and strengthening bilateral workforce ties. 

Geopolitical Dynamics

India’s foreign policy, emphasizing strategic autonomy, may face challenges depending on the U.S. administration’s stance on global issues. Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy could compel India to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes, balancing relations with both the U.S. and other global powers. Harris’s approach might align more closely with multilateralism, potentially offering a more predictable partnership. 

Way Forward

While the U.S.-India relationship is expected to remain robust, the election’s outcome will shape specific areas of cooperation and policy alignment. Both nations will need to adapt to the evolving political landscape to maintain and enhance their strategic partnership.