- Diversification– SOPA started 2022 with just F&B (food & beverage) and Leflair (lifestyle) and now has 6 verticals. The company has also expanded to 5 countries; Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand. Maxim believes there are significant cross selling opportunities. Specifically, Maxim believes Thoughtful Media can market the company’s other brands and the lifestyle business can be expanded geographically. Maxim has a positive view on the SEA market due to increasing mobile and ecommerce penetration, younger populations, travel coming back, and the opportunity to consolidate smaller companies. The acquisition of Inetindo creates additional expansion opportunities in other geographies and other branded products to be sold, and can increase the subscriber base that can be deployed to the potentially highest profit margin business of Society Points (loyal progam).
- Acquisitions– Acquisitions have diversified revenue streams to include Apple distribution stores, online advertising, travel/hotel ticketing, and telecom while expanding geographies in SEA. The Apple distribution stores acquisition was the largest acquisition to date in terms of revenue, with the potential to expand geographically and add users for its Loyalty program.
- Cashflow Positive– Management is forecasting to be cash flow positive at some point in 2H23.
- Healthy balance sheet– SOPA ended 2Q23 with unrestricted cash of $10.8M (close to the entire market cap of SOPA), slightly down from $13.8M at the end of 1Q23, and no material amount of debt. 2Q23 cash flow from operations was an outflow of ($2.9M). With expense reduction plans and newer businesses, along with the launch of the Loyalty program, Maxim expects the cash burn to decline and that current levels of cash should be sufficient to fund organic growth through 2024.
- Raise Revenue Targets– Maxim projects revenue to increase from $5.6M in 2022, to $16.5M ($15.0M prior) in 2023, up 194% y/y, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of ($11.0M) ($7.7M prior). For 2024, Maxim projects revenue of $44.3M ($25.1M prior), up 168% y/y.
- Compelling valuation/Reiterate Buy– Maxim targets share price to increase to $1.50. SOPA trades at an EV/revenue multiple of 0.1x Maxim’s 2024 revenue estimate vs. the peer average of 2.4x. Maxim’s $1.50 price target is based on its 10-year DCF analysis, which utilizes a 22% discount rate, 13x terminal multiple, and 3% terminal growth rate, equating to 0.7 x 2024 revenue estimate. Maxim’s positive outlook is supported by the attractive SEA markets and opportunities to consolidate smaller companies.