Guyana’s Growth Story: President Mohamed Irfaan Ali’s Fresh Mandate Fuels Oil-Led Transformation and Diversification

With a renewed majority, President Mohammad Irfaan Ali is steering Guyana into a new phase of oil-driven prosperity, infrastructure expansion, and economic diversification—while voices like Lutfi Hassan underscore the importance of unity and investment confidence.

Guyana at a New Crossroads

Guyana has entered a decisive second phase of its transformation following the re-election of President Mohamed Irfaan Ali on September 1, 2025. The People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) secured a comfortable majority, strengthening the government’s mandate to deliver its ambitious agenda of growth, welfare, and inclusivity.

Over the past five years, Guyana has emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, propelled by a historic oil discovery boom. The country now stands at a juncture where it must balance energy-led prosperity with sustainable development and diversification.

The Oil-Driven Growth Engine

Guyana’s offshore oil production has surged at an unprecedented pace:

• Output averaged ~631,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 2025, rising to about 664,000 bpd by July 2025.

• ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project (FPSO ONE GUYANA) has added significant capacity, with government forecasts targeting ~786,000 bpd by Q4 2025.

• Longer-term projections anticipate ~1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, positioning Guyana among the world’s leading per-capita oil producers.

This momentum has translated into double-digit GDP growth, with the IMF estimating around 10.3% growth in 2025. Importantly, Guyana’s non-oil economy is also expanding, powered by infrastructure, agriculture, and services.

Ali’s Vision for the Next Five Years

In his victory speech and inauguration address, President Ali outlined a roadmap that blends prosperity with inclusion:

• Welfare Expansion: Higher pensions, a raised minimum wage, free tertiary tuition, and subsidies like halved electricity bills.

• Infrastructure Push: Highways, hospitals, schools, and ports to modernize national capacity.

• Diversification Agenda: A strong push into agriculture, fisheries, forestry, ICT, and urban planning.

• Silica City: A futuristic smart city near Soesdyke-Linden, described by Ali as a “global model city” for sustainability and youth opportunities.

• Gas-to-Energy Project: A flagship 300 MW power and natural gas liquids (NGL) facility at Wales, aimed at slashing power costs, stabilizing the grid, and driving new industries.

Ali has also emphasized the need for fiscal prudence and equitable distribution of oil wealth to avoid the pitfalls of resource dependence.

Challenges Ahead

Despite optimism, challenges remain:

• Revenue Management: Ensuring oil revenues are invested wisely to avoid volatility.

• Transparency & Governance: Maintaining credibility in contracts and public projects.

• Geopolitical Sensitivities: The ongoing Essequibo territorial dispute with Venezuela continues to loom in the background.

Diaspora and Investor Perspective: Lutfi Hassan’s Voice

Mr Syed Lutfi Hassan, Honorary Consul General of Guyana (Southwest U.S.) and chairman of Houston-based Apex Group, has been a strong advocate of Guyana’s transformation story.

On his mandate, he noted, “My role is to promote Guyana in the US by bringing investors and political office bearers to educate them on what the country is doing.”

Speaking about national unity, Hassan highlighted the significance of President Ali’s “One Guyana” message “Bringing the six segments of society together as one is key to national success. This unity is vital to fully realize the opportunities ahead.”

He has also emphasized the country’s economic potential, “With the right investment climate and leadership, Guyana’s oil trajectory could place its GDP per capita among high-income producers in just a few years.”

On Guyana's growth story, Mr Hassan also said, “Guyana is standing at the threshold of an extraordinary transformation. With President Ali’s vision of ‘One Guyana’ and the right investment climate, this nation is not only harnessing its energy wealth but also laying the foundation for diversified growth that will benefit generations. The real success will come from ensuring every citizen shares in this prosperity, and I believe Guyana is ready to show the world how unity and opportunity can drive national greatness.”

Implications for Businesses and MSMEs

The opportunities are not limited to oil majors. For small and medium enterprises (SMEs):

• Lower Energy Costs: The Gas-to-Energy project will reduce tariffs, making agro-processing, manufacturing, and services more competitive.

• Construction & Services Demand: Infrastructure, housing, ports, and industrial parks are opening space for contractors, logistics providers, and service firms.

• Policy Stability: With the PPP/C securing a strong mandate, investors and entrepreneurs can expect continuity in priorities and local content policies.

The Bottomline

Guyana’s growth story is no longer just about oil; it is about how leadership leverages the oil era to build an inclusive, diversified, and sustainable economy. With President Ali’s fresh mandate and global advocates like Lutfi Hassan amplifying the “One Guyana” message, the nation is entering an era of both opportunities and responsibilities.

If managed well, Guyana could evolve from being the world’s newest oil hotspot to a diversified and resilient economy that serves as a model for developing nations.

References

• Reuters – Guyana oil output and growth outlook

• IMF – Guyana At a Glance

• OilNOW – Gas-to-Energy and Silica City coverage

• DPI – President Ali’s vision and projects