India-US Relations Post US Elections 2024: What if Kamala Harris or Donald Trump Wins

If either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump were to win the U.S. presidential election, the India-U.S. relationship would see a shift in focus but maintain strong foundational ties.

• Under Kamala Harris, the partnership would likely emphasize democratic values, climate change, and technological collaboration. Expect initiatives in renewable energy, healthcare, and digital transformation, coupled with a strategic Indo-Pacific alignment to counter regional influences.

• Under Donald Trump, the approach would likely focus on economic growth and defense, with an emphasis on reducing trade deficits, bolstering defense sales, and tightening immigration policies. Infrastructure and energy would see targeted cooperation to support mutual economic goals.

Both administrations would prioritize the Indo-Pacific strategy, digital partnerships, and healthcare initiatives, reinforcing India as a vital ally in U.S. foreign policy.

However, let's discuss the most-likely priorities, if Kamala Harris or Donald Trump were to win the U.S. presidential election, the priorities for India-U.S. relations would likely have both unique and common focal points. Here’s how their approaches might differ:

If Kamala Harris Wins:

Kamala Harris would likely prioritize democratic values, climate change, and a more strategic alliance with India. Key areas could include:

1. Democracy and Human Rights: Harris’s administration might emphasize democratic values and human rights in India-U.S. discussions, focusing on collaborative governance and promoting democracy in the Indo-Pacific region.

2. Climate Change: Building on Biden’s climate policies, Harris could prioritize joint efforts in clean energy, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation. This could open new pathways for technology exchange in renewable energy sectors.

3. Healthcare and Tech: Harris may push for deeper partnerships in healthcare and technology, potentially spurring joint initiatives on affordable healthcare, vaccine production, digital health, and emerging tech collaborations.

4. Defense and Security: The Indo-Pacific strategy would remain critical, with a focus on countering Chinese influence. Harris might continue strengthening defense ties, particularly through frameworks like the Quad alliance (U.S., India, Japan, Australia).

5. Economic and Trade Relations: With Harris's focus on labor and equity, trade deals may focus more on fair labor practices and intellectual property rights, with a potential push for digital trade agreements that support ethical tech standards.

If Donald Trump Wins:

Trump’s approach may emphasize economic growth, bilateral trade, and a stronger defense alliance with a more transactional tone. Key priorities might include:

1. Trade and Economic Partnership: Trump would likely prioritize reducing trade deficits and may seek a new bilateral trade agreement focused on lowering tariffs and increasing U.S. exports to India. There could be greater emphasis on U.S. investments in India's manufacturing sector as part of his “America First” policy.

2. Defense and Counter-Terrorism: Trump may further strengthen defense cooperation with a specific focus on counter-terrorism and containing China’s influence in the region. Defense sales and joint exercises could become more prominent under his administration.

3. Immigration Policies: Trump’s administration might continue stricter immigration policies, which could impact the H-1B visa program, affecting Indian tech professionals. However, given India’s importance, he might consider limited exceptions.

4. Energy and Infrastructure: Trump could promote U.S. exports in oil, gas, and energy infrastructure, with an eye on balancing trade while supporting India’s energy needs. He might also push for collaborations on infrastructure projects that create mutual economic benefits.

5. Regional Security: Trump would likely keep a strong stance on China and may expect India to play a larger role in regional security, enhancing India-U.S. ties under a transactional security arrangement.

Shared Priorities Regardless of the Outcome:

1. Indo-Pacific Strategy: Both leaders are expected to prioritize India as a key partner in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

2. Digital and Cybersecurity Partnership: With digital transformation at the core of both economies, cyber-security and digital regulations could be areas of shared focus.

3. Climate Change and Clean Energy: Although they would approach it differently, climate action remains an area of cooperation, particularly in clean energy and sustainable tech.

4. Healthcare and Pandemic Preparedness: The two countries are likely to continue joint efforts in healthcare, particularly in pharmaceutical production, vaccine distribution, and global health security.