US Anti-Dumping Probe Threatens India's Solar Module Exports, Raises Uncertainty for Industry

India’s solar exports, particularly to the United States—a key growth market—are now under renewed pressure, with the latest anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigation launched by a consortium of American solar manufacturers threatening to disrupt the recent momentum built by Indian players in the clean energy export ecosystem.

The petition, filed jointly by prominent US solar companies including First Solar, Mission Solar Energy, Qcells, and Talon PV Solar Solutions, targets solar module imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade (AASMT) has alleged that manufacturers in these countries, many of whom have links to Chinese parent firms, are unfairly undercutting prices and receiving illegal subsidies—thereby violating US trade laws and harming the domestic solar manufacturing industry.

According to the petition, the alleged dumping margins are significant—213.96% for India, 89.65% for Indonesia, and a staggering 245.79–249.09% for Laos. If the investigation by the US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission (ITC) proceeds and a preliminary duty is levied, it could be followed by a final ruling that may permanently alter India’s solar export trajectory.

For Indian manufacturers, the development comes as a major setback. After years of grappling with global overcapacity and intense pricing competition—particularly from Chinese firms—India had only recently begun carving a respectable niche in the global solar supply chain. The imposition of earlier AD/CVD duties on module imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam had opened up opportunities for Indian exporters. Companies such as Waaree, Adani Enterprises, and Vikram Solar emerged as key beneficiaries, collectively exporting 4.4 GW worth of modules to the US in the calendar year 2024, contributing nearly 8% to total American imports.

But that opportunity may now be short-lived. According to brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities, Indian firms with substantial exposure to the US market, especially Waaree with nearly 57% of its order book tied to the US, are likely to be the worst hit. While some firms, such as Premier Energies—catering mostly to domestic demand—may be relatively insulated, the overall disruption could be notable.

“The short-term impact of this investigation could be severe. Shipment schedules might be thrown off, pricing competitiveness may erode, and strategic planning will have to be recalibrated,” Kotak warned in its latest sectoral update. The timing of the probe also creates complications for developers in the US aiming to take advantage of the 'Big Beautiful Bill', which offers lucrative tax credits for renewable projects completed before 2027 or those that commence construction by July 4, 2026.

Ironically, the rising protectionism in the US is unfolding at a time when Indian solar manufacturing is witnessing unprecedented growth. Domestic module manufacturing capacity has already touched 74 GW, while cell capacity stands at around 25 GW. As per industry projections, India is poised to reach 125 GW of module and 40 GW of cell capacity by 2030—numbers that were unthinkable half a decade ago.

Ashish Agarwal, Head of Solar & Storage at BluPine Energy, acknowledges the near-term challenges but remains cautiously optimistic. “Yes, this probe can create temporary headwinds, but we cannot ignore the robust tailwinds from domestic policy support in India. The sector here is being nurtured with long-term vision,” he said.

Indeed, the Indian government has been aggressively promoting domestic manufacturing through initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and import duties on Chinese modules. This push has already begun transforming India into a competitive player, not just in modules but also in the upstream value chain.

However, the same cannot be said about India’s presence in the solar cell market. Despite a global gap—especially in the US, where module capacity has risen to 51 GW but cell capacity languishes at only 2 GW—India has yet to tap into this opportunity. Limited domestic cell manufacturing, higher realisation in the Indian market (15 cents/watt vs 12–14 cents in the US), and stiff competition from Malaysian and South Korean players have all contributed to India’s minuscule share in the US cell import market.

Yet, this may change. Over 50 GW of solar cell capacity has been announced globally, and 12 GW is under construction. SEIA estimates that the US may see its cell capacity rise to 9 GW by year-end 2025. While this represents progress, it still leaves a significant void to be filled by imports. If Indian manufacturers can scale capacity quickly and adapt to pricing pressures, they could be well-positioned to address this gap.

Prashant Mathur, CEO of Saatvik Green Energy, notes that this moment represents both a risk and an inflexion point. “The petitions signal a structural shift in global supply chains. While they bring complexity, they also underscore the importance of having credible, rule-abiding partners. India’s reputation as a transparent and democratic supplier could actually work to its advantage in the long run,” he said.

Even so, the near-term risks remain considerable. With Indonesia and Laos having benefited significantly from earlier duties against Southeast Asian countries, they too now find themselves in the crosshairs. And with Indian monthly export volumes to the US steady at around 300 MW, any new duties could create an immediate supply-demand imbalance, particularly for US-based developers seeking timely project execution.

While the Indian solar industry may find some relief in strengthening demand from Europe and the MENA region, the US remains a strategically critical market—both in terms of volume and pricing. A restrictive policy shift there, especially one that includes heavy tariffs, could not only dampen growth projections but also shake investor confidence in India’s burgeoning renewable manufacturing sector.

The coming months will be crucial. If duties are imposed, Indian manufacturers will need to rapidly diversify export destinations and strengthen their foothold in domestic procurement schemes. Simultaneously, a sharper focus on cells—not just modules—will be critical in building an end-to-end, globally competitive solar value chain.

The sun may still shine brightly on India’s solar ambitions, but for now, storm clouds are gathering on the western horizon.