India’s Pharma Exports on Track to Hit $65 Billion by 2030 Despite Global Headwinds

India’s pharmaceutical sector, long hailed as the "pharmacy of the world," is showing resilience and ambition in equal measure. Despite mounting global uncertainties, from regulatory pressures to looming tariff threats from the US, the country’s pharma exports are poised to double to $65 billion by 2030, according to a new analysis by Rubix Data Sciences.

This growth trajectory is underpinned by the sector's strategic pivots into advanced therapeutics, complex generics, and speciality drug formulations, all part of a broader plan to future-proof Indian pharma's export strength in an increasingly protectionist and competitive global market.

US Tariff Threat Looms, But Industry Looks Ahead

One of the most immediate challenges facing Indian drugmakers is the renewed threat of protectionism from the United States, the largest destination for India’s pharmaceutical exports, accounting for nearly 32% of the total. Former US President Donald Trump, who is again in the political spotlight, has warned of potential tariffs up to 200% on pharmaceutical imports. Such a move, if implemented, could drastically impact Indian exporters.

Yet, the domestic industry is responding with strategic aggression. Indian Contract Development and Manufacturing Organisations (CDMOs) are acquiring assets in the US and Europe to establish deeper global footprints and mitigate the impact of trade barriers. More importantly, they are shifting focus to high-value, less commoditised segments such as oncology, central nervous system (CNS) drugs, and anti-diabetics, areas with rising global demand and fewer suppliers.

Patent Expiry Wave to Trigger Surge in Generics

Between 2025 and 2029, small-molecule drugs worth nearly $64 billion are set to lose patent protection. This presents a golden opportunity for Indian pharma companies, especially those with advanced capabilities in complex generics, injectables, and biosimilars.

Companies like Cipla and Lupin, which have invested early in differentiated therapies such as inhalables and sterile injectables, are well-positioned to lead this wave. Smaller firms like Alembic Pharmaceuticals and Shilpa Medicare, while having more limited US footprints, are also expected to gain ground, leveraging their cost competitiveness and growing technical expertise.

Regulatory Compliance Bolsters Export Credibility

One of the most encouraging developments for the sector is the visible improvement in regulatory compliance. In 2014, nearly 23% of FDA inspections in India resulted in Official Action Indicated (OAI) status — a red flag on quality compliance. As of 2024, that number has dropped to just 11%, even as the global average rose to 14%.

This shows a maturing industry that is aligning with international standards, thereby reinforcing its credibility in global markets — a critical factor when marketing complex, high-value therapeutics.

In FY25, Indian pharma exports stood at $30.5 billion, marking a 9.3% rise year-on-year. This upward momentum reflects both market demand and industry adaptation.

MSME Role in Pharma’s Export Story

While large companies dominate headlines, the Indian pharmaceutical export engine runs on the strength of its MSME backbone. Thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises — especially in pharma clusters like Baddi (Himachal Pradesh), Hyderabad, and Ahmedabad — are key players in contract manufacturing, active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) production, and packaging solutions.

As Indian pharma moves into complex generics and biosimilars, MSMEs will need to upskill, digitize, and modernize to stay relevant. Government support in the form of the PLI Scheme for Pharmaceuticals and financial incentives under the MSME sector could play a pivotal role in enabling this transition. Quality certifications, regulatory training, and easier access to working capital will be crucial if smaller firms are to plug into global value chains.

In this context, the doubling of pharma exports by 2030 is not just a big pharma story — it’s an MSME story, too.

Looking Ahead: From Volume to Value

India’s pharma strategy appears to be evolving from high-volume, low-margin commodity drugs to a more diversified, value-oriented export mix. By 2047, as Rubix Data Sciences suggests, India could emerge among the top five global exporters by value, provided it continues to innovate and invest in regulatory compliance, advanced therapies, and global collaborations.

Even in the face of tariffs and trade restrictions, the Indian pharmaceutical sector is scripting a story of adaptability and ambition — one where MSMEs and large players alike are vital authors.