India’s GDP growth rate for the April-June quarter is likely to be around 18.5 per cent with an upward bias, according to a SBI Ecowrap report.
The GDP estimate for the first quarter of FY22 is lower than the 21.4 per cent growth estimated by the Reserve Bank of India.
The gross value added (GVA) is estimated at 15 per cent, as per the SBI report.
“Based on SBI Nowcasting model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY22 would be around 18.5 per cent (with upward bias),” it said.
“Higher growth in the second quarter of 2022, or Q1 FY22 is mainly on account of low base. Almost all the countries have registered double-digit (or near to double-digit) real GDP growth. The average real GDP growth for 17 economies has improved from (-) 0.1 per cent in Q1 2022 to 12.2 per cent in Q2 2022.”
If the corporate results announced so far is looked at, according to the report, a substantial recovery is visible in corporate GVA in Q1 FY22. Overall, the corporate GVA of 4,069 companies registered a growth of 28.4 per cent in Q1 FY22.
However, this is lower than growth in Q4FY22, thereby corroborating the lower GDP estimate than what was anticipated earlier, it added.