India Exim Bank Projects US$ 114.2 Bn Merchandise Exports in Q3 FY26

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 114.2 bn, witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 5%, while non-oil exports are forecast to increase to US$ 99.8 bn, growing at 3.9%, during Q3 (October-December) of FY2026. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount US$ 88 bn, with an almost flat y-o-y growth (-0.6%) during the same quarter.

India’s export growth is expected to be driven by a favourable domestic macroeconomic environment, marked by sustained low inflation and a competitive exchange rate as a result of rupee depreciation. Increased geographical diversification of exports and favourable prospects of current trade negotiations with several countries is also expected to contribute to positive exports’ growth. However, there are downside risks to these growth projections on account of higher tariffs and continued global trade policy uncertainty and possible disruptions to global supply chains.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the fourth quarter of FY 2026 (i.e., January-March 2026) would be released during the first fortnight of February 2026.

The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Satyananda Sahoo, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.